Wall Street Buzzes Over Novavax as HHS Shifts Focus from mRNA: Is NVAX the Comeback Story of 2025?
Investor optimism rises as speculation grows around non-mRNA vaccines and Novavax’s upcoming catalysts
Novavax Inc. (NASDAQ: NVAX) is once again dominating the chatter across financial forums, retail trading communities, and Wall Street analysts after new reports hinted that the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) could pivot away from mRNA-based vaccines for treating and preventing respiratory viruses like COVID-19 and RSV. The biotech firm, known for its protein-based vaccine platform, is gaining attention as this potential policy shift may finally play in its favor — and investors are taking notice.
NVAX, which trades on the NASDAQ, has been a controversial stock ever since its late entry into the COVID-19 vaccine race. After soaring to over $300 in early 2021, the stock plummeted amid FDA delays, limited global partnerships, and increased competition from mRNA giants like Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA). But now, with mRNA fatigue growing in the public narrative and safety concerns resurfacing, Novavax could be positioning itself as a viable alternative in the respiratory vaccine space.
Investors on Reddit, StockTwits, and X (formerly Twitter) are increasingly vocal about what they see as a make-or-break moment for NVAX. Many are pointing to the upcoming earnings report, which could be the turning point if the company announces strong forward guidance or a long-awaited strategic partnership. Others remain skeptical, highlighting poor execution by management and the overhang from convertible bond liabilities that have kept institutional money on the sidelines.
Still, the short interest remains high, and that’s sparking speculation about a possible short squeeze if positive news hits the wire. “NVAX is the most asymmetric play in the vaccine space right now,” said one user on the r/WallStreetBets subreddit. “If they lock in a deal with a global pharma player or HHS buys their RSV vaccine — this thing flies.”
Adding fuel to the speculation is a growing sentiment that non-mRNA vaccines may see increased demand as booster fatigue sets in among the public. Several physicians and researchers have pointed out the longer-lasting immunity and lower side effect profiles associated with protein subunit vaccines like Novavax’s. This could make NVAX a more palatable option for mass immunization campaigns in 2025 and beyond.
Despite its underdog status, Novavax may be entering a critical inflection point. The stock closed yesterday at $11.47, well off its pandemic-era highs, but with renewed bullish sentiment driving volume, traders are clearly betting on a reversal.
With HHS potentially altering its procurement strategy, and whispers of a major partnership on the horizon, NVAX could be setting up for a dramatic resurgence. For a stock that’s been left for dead more than once, the coming weeks could finally mark the beginning of a long-overdue turnaround.
