Eli Lilly Stock Plunges as Weight-Loss Pill Falls Short — But This Isn’t Over
Wall Street reacts to disappointing trial data, but GLP-1 momentum and blockbuster earnings keep the narrative alive
Eli Lilly is grabbing headlines as its much-anticipated oral GLP‑1 obesity drug, orforglipron, generates both hope and hesitation in today’s market. Trading under ticker LLY on the NYSE, the company saw its shares tumble—down between 10% and 14% in early trading—following the release of Phase‑3 results for the pill, which achieved a 12.4% average weight loss over 72 weeks, less than expectations set by analysts and investors.
This result, while still meeting primary endpoints, falls short of injectable competitors like Novo Nordisk (NVO, traded on US OTC as well as Copenhagen Exchange), whose Wegovy showed about 15% weight loss, prompting a more than 7% rally in NVO’s stock. The reach of LLY stock reflects the shake-up: some report as much as a 14% slide, others noted pre‑market losses near 10%, and others pegged the drop closer to 13%.
Yet, this story isn’t all caution and concern. Lilly delivered exceptional second-quarter earnings: revenue surged 38% year‑on‑year to about $15.56 billion, thanks largely to explosive demand for its injectable GLP‑1s — Zepbound (up 172%) and Mounjaro (up 68%). Earnings per share clocked in at $6.31, beating expectations and prompting a raised full‑year guidance: $60–62 billion in revenue, and $21.75–23.00 in EPS.
The trial, known as ATTAIN‑1, involved over 3,000 adults and tested three doses (6 mg, 12 mg, 36 mg). The highest dose group achieved 12.4% weight loss vs. just 0.9% for placebo. Secondary endpoints showed that nearly 60% of those in the top dose lost at least 10% of body weight, and about 40% lost 15% or more. Cardiometabolic markers also improved, including drops in cholesterol, triglycerides, blood pressure, and inflammation markers like hs‑CRP.
Still, patient tolerability deserves attention: gastrointestinal side effects like nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea appeared more frequently than expected, with about 10% of high-dose users discontinuing due to adverse events.
But Lilly’s leadership remains optimistic. CEO David Ricks emphasized that the convenience and scalability of a once‑daily pill could outweigh minor efficacy differences—especially when injectables dominate the current market. The oral format could unlock new patient segments and pave the way for further indications, ranging from maintenance therapy to diabetes and sleep apnea. Lilly intends to file for regulatory approval by year-end 2025.
In summary, the orforglipron results may be a slight stumble—but they don't derail Lilly’s offensive in obesity treatments. With a stellar financial foundation, proven injectable success, and strong pipeline potential, LLY remains a major player. For investors and patients alike, the opportunity lies in the broader GLP‑1 universe, not just the headline numbers.
