Where Will Tesla Stock Be by 2028? The Next 36 Months Could Change Everything
Tesla (TSLA), listed on the NASDAQ in the USA, opened July at around $315 per share—a sharp drop from a peak north of $488 in December 2024. That descent reflects broader market forces: cooling EV demand, shrinking subsidies, and intensifying competition from players like BYD and GM’s Cruise.
Yet investors still bet on Elon Musk’s futuristic ambitions—robotaxis, humanoid robots, Full Self‑Driving (FSD), and energy ventures. How might it all shake out by mid‑2028? Let’s go deeper into the forces shaping TSLA’s three‑year outlook.
EV Tax Credits Vanish, Global Competitors Surge
Congress recently approved a bill eliminating the $7,500 federal EV tax credit in fall 2025. That’s a heavy blow for Tesla’s U.S. demand, already on the decline. Meanwhile, global rivals gain traction—Chinese EV giants, Rivian (RIVN), and Lucid (LCID) are chipping away at Tesla’s market share. In Q1 2025, Tesla deliveries fell 13.5%, and profits slumped nearly 71%. The automotive segment still makes up around 75% of Tesla’s total revenue.
Tesla’s Real Value May Lie Beyond Cars
According to multiple investor breakdowns, Tesla's future valuation could hinge less on cars and more on emerging verticals. One valuation split suggests just 10% comes from automotive, with 21% attributed to autonomous services, 17% to robotaxis, and 34% to Optimus humanoid robots. Tesla Energy and battery storage continue expanding, with Megapack installations jumping over 110% year-over-year. Meanwhile, in June 2025, Tesla launched a supervised Full Self-Driving pilot program in Austin—paving the way toward regulatory approval for driverless operation.
Analyst Targets Range From Cautious to Extreme
- Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, estimates TSLA could reach $2,600 by 2029, fueled mainly by revenue from autonomous taxi fleets and artificial intelligence.
- Piper Sandler raised its price target to $500, citing the disruptive potential of Tesla’s next-gen models and humanoid robot developments.
- Morningstar values TSLA closer to $210–$250, considering the current stock significantly overvalued.
- The consensus on MarketBeat sits around $301.60, just under current levels.
- UBS recently downgraded Tesla to “sell,” with a fair value of $197. Analysts cited overhyped innovation expectations and underwhelming profitability from emerging tech.
- Forecast aggregators are divided: LongForecast suggests a $314–$323 price range in 2027, WalletInvestor predicts $258–$266, and CoinCodex spans from $126 to $305 by late 2028.
What’s Realistic for Tesla in 3 Years?
- Base case: TSLA maintains a range between $300–$400. The Model Y and Model 3 remain dominant, energy revenues grow steadily, and FSD continues expanding under pilot programs.
- Bull case: By 2027, Tesla’s robotaxis hit roads at scale. If Optimus robots begin commercial rollout, recurring revenue surges. That could send TSLA soaring past $500.
- Bear case: EV sales erode further, government subsidies disappear, and competitors dominate. Tesla's tech promises stay in beta, pushing the stock down toward $200.
The Next 36 Months Could Be Make or Break
Tesla’s future will hinge on several key developments:
- U.S. and global EV demand without the aid of tax credits
- Widespread rollout and regulation of robotaxis and FSD
- Continued growth in Tesla Energy and storage deployments
- Whether Optimus becomes reality—or remains a long-shot bet
Most conservative estimates hover between $200–$350. Moderate bulls see a $300–$500 future. The extreme bulls calling for $600+ will only be proven right if FSD, Optimus, or robotaxis achieve real commercial adoption.
For investors and watchers alike, these next three years may be Tesla’s most critical phase since 2018. Watch earnings calls, regulatory filings, and robotaxi roadmaps closely—one breakthrough could make all the difference.