Gold’s Recovery Stalls as Markets Dismiss July Fed Rate Cut
Shaky U.S. jobs data and stubborn Fed tone leave gold under the microscope, but central bank demand remains a safety net
Spot gold holds near the $3,330–$3,350 range despite a 2.2% weekly gain. Investors had hoped turbulence in U.S. fiscal policy, including Trump’s tax-cut bill and tariff threats, would spark a rally—but a strong June jobs report dashed July rate-cut expectations and lifted the U.S. dollar.
Analysts suggest gold’s rally has hit resistance around the 100‑period moving average. Add in steady inflation, solid labor data, and Fed officials saying cuts are off the table until September at the earliest, and the result is a shallow recovery.
Still, HSBC nudged its long‑term price forecasts higher—$3,215 for 2025 and $3,125 for 2026—even as it warned of a pullback given fading safe‑haven appeal. Central banks continue buying more than 1,000 tonnes annually, providing structural support.
Investors in SPDR Gold Shares (GLD, NYSE Arca) watch nervously as the ETF trades near $307.14, dipping slightly on the day but still tracking bullion closely. With a forward‑looking Fed and cautious market sentiment, the near‑term outlook favors consolidation—but signs of renewed weakness in jobs or a fading U.S. dollar could trigger another leg higher.