Amazon Prime Day Sales Plunge 41% on Day One — Is the Hype Fading or Just Evolving?
Early numbers disappoint, but Wall Street sees long-term opportunity for AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc. (ticker AMZN, listed on the NASDAQ, sector: consumer discretionary / e-commerce) kicked off its extended four-day Prime Day event (July 8–11) with unexpected weakness: U.S. online sales dropped a stunning 41% during the first full day compared to last year. Average item price also fell, landing at $25.46, down from around $28 in 2024.
Momentum Commerce reported that sales during the first four hours were down nearly 14%, which initially alarmed investors. However, analysts believe this early softness reflects a more gradual purchase cycle now that the event spans four days instead of two. Consumers appear to be taking their time, spreading purchases rather than rushing to buy everything within 48 hours.
Adobe Analytics highlighted a broader consumer shift. While Amazon’s Day One was underwhelming, U.S. online sales across all retailers reached nearly $8 billion, representing a 9.9% year-over-year increase. Product categories like electronics and appliances surged 95% and 135% respectively, with back-to-school spending soaring by 190%. Discounts ranged from 9% to 23%, keeping consumer interest alive across platforms.
Despite the weak start, analysts including Justin Post from BofA Securities remain optimistic about AMZN’s performance. He maintained a Buy rating, forecasting that total gross merchandise value (GMV) for Prime Day could reach $21 billion or more, marking a 60% increase from last year. That figure would still make this Prime Day one of Amazon’s most successful to date.
Amazon stock (AMZN) dipped slightly on Day One but rebounded midweek, gaining about 1.4% as investor sentiment turned positive. The new four-day format is believed to smooth volatility, offering more time for consumers to act and for Amazon to optimize its promotions.
This year’s expansion to four days is reshaping shopping behavior. Gone is the two-day frenzy. Instead, shoppers are pacing their decisions, waiting for updated “Lightning Deals” and daily refreshes. Some experts say this more relaxed approach could boost conversion rates by reducing pressure and improving user experience.
Key sectors like smart home tech, wearables, and home appliances led early sales, suggesting focused consumer interest. At the same time, price-sensitive buyers are cross-checking deals with rivals like Walmart, Best Buy, and Target, extending the competitive landscape.
For Amazon, the initial decline is no red flag. Extended sales cycles have historically shifted momentum toward later days of the event. The company appears to have strategically designed this year’s calendar to stretch attention, reduce server loads, and prolong consumer engagement.
With tariff anxieties growing and inflation biting into household budgets, the 2025 Prime Day event is also testing Amazon’s ability to adapt to an evolving economy. So far, AMZN seems to be banking on longevity, not just shock-value discounts.